It’s beginning to look like oil is less and less a critical commodity.
Brent spiked by 30% from around $100 a barrel when Russia invaded Ukraine (February 24, 2022) and became even more volatile than usual, but by August it had subsided to below $100, and has continued to fall since then. Indeed, even the Hamas attack on Israel (October 7, 2023), with many pundits expecting a much wider escalation in the Middle East, has not had any material impact—oil rose by less than 0.5% the day following the attack and, again, has fallen since then and currently trading at under $78 a barrel.
