No international oil experts have been able to predict with any degree of confidence the impact of the USending all waivers to import of Iranian oil by countries. Analysts were expecting a price increase of around $10 per barrel as a result of the waivers ending, with Brent price fluctuating between $60/barrel and $75/barrel. Very few have predicted prices going close to $100/barrel or above. Philip Verleger, an oil sector veteran, has predicted that Brent could rise to between $114/barrel and $126/barrel. His prediction used a model developed and based on 19 market disruptions between 1973 and 2018. All such models developed by academicians perfectly “predict” the old events. But, their accuracy of predicting future events has always been doubtful. Surprisingly, the media still gave wide coverage to Verleger’s prediction.
