Shares of state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) such as Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Indian Oil (IOC) are off 30-40 per cent from their 2020 highs led by the sell-off in broader markets. However, there is a silver lining too. Crude oil prices falling to 18-year lows has many long-term triggers for these companies. Shares of the OMCs, after hitting 52-week lows recently, have thus rebounded up to 15 per cent in last two trading sessions. And could gain more.
First the bad news. The recent fall in oil prices and demand collapse due to lockdown will lead to inventory loss (on crude oil and products) as well as profitability, and thus will hit OMCs’ near-term earnings. Analysts at Centrum Broking foresee a 66-86 per cent fall in OMCs’ operating and net profit in Q4 led by weak refining margins, inventory losses, decline in demand, etc.
