Manufacturing and commercial activities are gradually picking up in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, to at least 70 per cent of the levels seen in the past two years if the electricity consumption curve is any indication.
There is a strong correlation between economic activity and electricity consumption. A healthy uptick in power consumption in a non-drought year points to robust manufacturing and business activities.
“If we compare the average daily consumption for June-September for the same period of 2018 and 2019, there is not a big change. This year, there has been a dip of about 7 per cent. This shows economic activity was lower by 7 per cent-10 per cent during this period compared to the same period in 2018 and 2019,” said S Sumanth, former director at Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation (KPTCL).
Consumption usually dips in April compared to March: while the drop was 7 per cent last year, it was 23 per cent this year. Average daily electricity consumption in the southern region has touched 848 million units (MUs) for the first 22 days of this month, despite good rainfall. This shows, it is not farmers but industries and commercial units that are drawing more power, Sumanth added.
While water installations, street lights and domestic consumption don’t show much growth, consumption will jump big way in a drought year as farmers use irrigation pump (IP) sets.
Calendar year 2020 began with healthy power consumption trends across the southern states, exceeding 1,000 MUs a day. It dropped 20 per cent in April due to the lockdown. In September, it reached 848 MUs in daily consumption for the first 22 days. The trend is positive, Sumanth said, as Karnataka has received good rainfall. Hence, the present consumption pattern cannot be compared with that two years ago when drought forced higher consumption.
Bidadi Industries Association president KV Rajendra Hegde confirmed that industrial production was rising. “We have scaled up to 70 per cent-80 per cent of last year’s levels in production. Things are improving every month and we hope to reach full levels post festive season once we get some clarity on the vaccine,” he said. “The government is doing its best to help industries,” he added.
A senior executive at a large private sector manufacturing unit in Bengaluru said they have moved to two shifts as only caution, confidence and economic activities can beat the coronavirus. He hoped that growth in power consumption would lead to early revival of market sentiments.
One reason for electricity consumption not falling drastically was the government’s decision to keep manufacturing in essential goods going. There was some additional demand coming from frenetic manufacturing of Covid-related products such as ventilators, oxygen cylinders, PPEs, facemasks, and RT-PCR kits, an executive at a manufacturing firm said.
There has been a growth of about 6 per cent in the annual growth of energy consumption in the last few years, but the lockdowns and good rainfall have led to a drop this year.
