NEW DELHI: India will lead the global recovery in energy demand but much will hinge on how soon an effective Covid-19 vaccine is found and whether current practices such as work from home and aversion to travel outlast the pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency.
“Prior to the crisis, energy demand was projected to grow by 12% between 2019 and 2030. Growth over this period is now 9% in the ‘stated policy scenario’ (STEPS) and only 4% in the ‘delayed recovery scenario’ (DRS). With demand in advanced economies on a declining trend, all of the increase comes from emerging market and developing economies, led by India,” says the IEA’s World Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.
The report sees global energy demand shrinking by 5% this year and energy investments by 18%. Oil demand is expected to decline 8% and coal 7% in sharp contrast to a marginal rise in the contribution of renewables. It says global oil demand will recover to pre-crisis level by 2023 if a vaccine comes out in 2021 under STEPS. But this will not happen before 2025 if the pandemic prolongs and the economic slump deepens.
