Surging oil and gas prices, skyrocketing insurance costs and attacks on energy and banking infrastructure are likely to follow quickly if Iran’s interception of two UK-linked tankers spirals into outright war. A lengthy conflict in the Persian Gulf could help tip the US and global economies into recession and even accelerate the worldwide move away from fossil fuels. Here’s what some top oil, commodity and geopolitical analysts see as the most likely outcomes.
Will the Strait of Hormuz be shut down?
In a limited confrontation the flow of oil and other commodities should continue through the strait, with the caveat that certain oil tankers could be targeted by Iran, said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. In a major war, Iran could shut the strait and lay mines.
