NEW DELHI: The Economic Survey has held out hopes of ‘achche din (good times)’ returning for fuel consumers, predicting moderation in global oil prices in a throwback to 2014 when the Narendra Modi government first came to power.
The report card for 2018-19, the culminating fiscal of the Modi government’s first term, expects demand concerns to ease due to a slowdown. Worries over supplies tightening as a result of extended production cuts by the OPEC-plus grouping amid loss of Iranian shipments due to US sanctions are expected to be outweighed by this dip in demand.
When Modi took oath as Prime Minister in May 2014, India was paying about $108 per barrel for a mix of crude known as the ‘Indian basket’. A report by Macquarie Capital Securities India that year had said a $10/ barrel fall in prices would cut the import bill and current account deficit by $9.2 billion, or 0.43% of the then GDP.
