All is not well in the house of Opec. As the cartel’s oil ministers prepare to meet in just over a week to decide on the next step in their record-breaking output deal, officials in the United Arab Emirates, normally a loyal Saudi ally, are privately questioning the benefits of participating, and may even be considering whether to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
The deliberations, leaked to the press [last week], may be nothing more than an attempt to get the producer group to review the Gulf country’s quota. If so, it seems unlikely to succeed. Worse, it risks throwing a wrench into the discussions over how producers should respond to the conflicting pressures from positive vaccine news and the negative impact of renewed coronavirus lockdown restrictions on travel and economic activity.
Questions about the UAE’s future in Opec, even if they are only preliminary internal deliberations, come at an awkward time for the group and its Opec + allies.
