With airlines in the West expecting to take years to recover from Covid-19, aircraft manufacturers depend on the resilience and growth potential of the Chinese market. But China’s own aerospace ambitions and the geopolitical tensions that surround them could make it a turbulent ride.
China has recovered from the pandemic to become the world’s largest domestic aviation market. Traffic is 8% higher than a year ago, data by Oliver Wyman’s PlaneStats show. In the U.S. and Europe, it is still down 41% and 68%, respectively.
With another 500 million Chinese expected to join the middle classes over the next few years, the country is also the industry’s big growth opportunity. The International Air Transport Association predicts 5% average annual growth in passenger journeys in the Asia-Pacific region between 2019 and 2039. Mature Western markets are expected to expand at a 2.2% rate.
