Russia’s oil deliveries to China and India are 30% below peak

There are tentative signs that Russia’s diversion of crude oil to Asia from long-time European customers is faltering. Shipments to China and India are down by almost 30 per cent from their post-invasion peak.

While it’s too early to say with confidence that self-sanctioning and pressure from the US on India, China and other buyers will have a sustained impact, there are early signs that the Asian nations may not be able to fully replace Russia’s European buyers. The trend is seen most clearly when week-to-week variations are smoothed out using rolling averages.

There’s still a long way to go before the drop in shipments hits the Kremlin’s war chest hard enough to give President Vladimir Putin second thoughts about his invasion of Ukraine.