Curtailed movement of people and goods, and suspension of tolling across the country from March 25, will lead to a 1,250 basis points (BPS) fall in traffic and 850 BPS de-growth in toll revenues of highway operators, according to a study by CRISIL.
That would follow near-zero growth in traffic in fiscal 2020 because of slowing economic growth, revision in axle load norms, and the Covid-19 pandemic-driven lockdown that began in late March.
In contrast, fiscals 2016 to 2019 saw 8.5 per cent compound annual growth rate in traffic, and 12 per cent in toll revenue.
“Our calculations for this fiscal assumes 90 per cent loss of traffic in April (when tolling was suspended for 19 days) and 40 per cent loss in May as the lockdown would continue in many parts of the country.
