Ukraine war: SBI sees rupee at 77.5 by June; CAD at 3.5% if crude boils; GDP growth at 7.1%

MUMBAI: House economists at the nation’s largest lender SBI have forecast more pain for the rupee if the ongoing Ukraine war lingers, plumbing to a new low of 77.5 to a dollar by June and marginally improving to 77 by end-December.
They also said the current account deficit (CAD) will be at 3.5 per cent if crude oil trades at $130 a barrel, pulling down growth to 7.1 per cent.
If FY23 average oil price rises to $100 a barrel, it will pull down growth to around 7.6 per cent from 8 per cent estimated earlier, inflation will rise to 5 per cent from 4.5 per cent, and the current account gap will jump to $86.6 billion or 2.5 per cent of GDP and can soar to 3.5 per cent if oil prices average at $130 billion.