NEW DELHI: Higher-than-expected oil prices in a scenario where the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupts oil supply would cause lower economic growth and higher inflation, according to Fitch Ratings.
According to the rating agency, world GDP growth would be 0.4 percentage points lower in 2024, but only 0.1 percentage points lower in 2025, although the absence of a significant rebound suggests there could be a persistent moderate impact beyond the initial shock.
Fitch’s September Global Economic Outlook (GEO) assumed average oil prices of USD75 a barrel (bbl) and USD70/bbl in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
