Oil is already trade war’s collateral damage even without duty hikes

U.S. oil shipments are likely to be a casualty of the trade war with China, even though crude was spared from the latest list of American goods targeted with retaliatory tariffs.

While oil has never been subject to levies during the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies, the flow of American cargoes to China has nevertheless been throttled by rising tensions over the past year. Refiners in the Asian nation — previously the top Asian buyer of U.S. crude — have largely shunned imports in a bid to avoid getting caught up in the trade war.

Even without tariffs, the latest escalation in the dispute threatens to snuff out a recovery in flows seen over the past couple of months that were driven by hopes that tensions were easing. That will close the door to a critical