Falling oil prices defy predictions. But what about the next chapter?

When Russia invaded Ukraine in the spring, energy experts were predicting that oil prices could reach $200 a barrel, a price that would send the costs of shipping and transportation into the stratosphere and bring the global economy to its knees.

Now oil prices are lower than they were when the war began, having dropped more than 30% in barely two months. On Monday, news of a slowing Chinese economy and a cut in Chinese interest rates sent prices down further, to less than $90 a barrel for the American bench mark.