Key trends in the oil & gas sector in Q1FY21 were: (i) Dubai and Brent crude were down 53-54% y-o-y at $31-32/bbl; (ii) domestic gas price was at its 10-year low of $2.7/mmbtu; (iii) Reuters’ Singapore gross refining margin (GRM) was in the red at minus $0.9/bbl; (iv) auto fuel net marketing margin was at an all-time high of Rs 6.13/l; (v) auto fuel consumption was down 33% y-o-y and total product consumption down 26% y-o-y due to lockdown; and (vi) lockdown has meant gas consumption by city gas distribution (CGD) is down sharply while fall in gas transmission and LNG imports is more modest.
We estimate strong earnings growth for OMCs but loss for ONGC, steep earnings fall for CGD players and more moderate earnings fall for GAIL, Petronet LNG (PLNG) and GSPL.
